Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Political Participation Rates in Lowry Hill East

There's been a lot of recent discussion about who leads Minneapolis' neighborhood organizations. As in, are they diverse enough? This is an important question. But we should also be asking who and how many are voting for those leaders. We don't have an answer for the who (I would advocate for a simple demographic survey for annual meeting attendees). But, in a first-of-its-kind analysis of never-before-cared-about numbers, we can finally tell you how many.

Minneapolis election data available here.

To give an idea of the universe of politically engaged residents, I have listed neighborhood turnout for mid-term and off-year elections (famously low turnout). It should be noted that LHENA's 2015 election was particularly well-contested. There were two distinct, motivated factions and lots of candidates (15). People tell me that in other neighborhoods, great leaders are the ones who grudgingly say, "Fine, I'll do it." Not so in the Wedge! Selecting who stands between our neighborhood and annihilation is serious business.

Which is all to say, this might be a comparatively optimistic model of neighborhood association participation, rather than a typical example of what happens citywide. When reached for comment about low participation rates, newly elected (maybe?) LHENA Board Member John Edwards said, "If we want to claim a mandate from our neighborhood's nearly 7,000 residents, we should look to find ways to make ourselves more relevant, and participation less of a burden." [full disclosure: John Edwards is the owner of this blogspot and the author of this post]

Methodology: The number of LHENA voters are estimates I've seen reported by Board Members; these estimates are consistent with my own experience. In the case of 2015, a look at the actual vote totals indicates that 125 may be an overestimate: 792 votes / 7 votes per person = ~114 ballots cast (I'm sure there were undervotes and a few un-tallied write-ins for Nicole Curtis).

Though voting at LHENA does not require you to be a registered Minnesota voter, it's a better baseline than "All Residents" for the number of people who might conceivably want to include themselves in the political process. In calculating LHENA turnout, total registered voters are from the previous November's city/state/federal election.